The Leading Authority on Global Security: Facts, Analysis, Influence

This is the first International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) online Annual Review covering the period 2015–2016. During this period, the Institute confirmed its role as an enabler and influencer of global strategic debate and decision-making against a backdrop of dramatically evolving global and regional security events.

Highlights included the convening of the Cartagena Dialogue in Colombia, a ground-breaking geo-economic forum bringing together for the first time governments and business from the Asia-Pacific and Latin America to redefine trading partnerships across the Pacific. The Dialogue joined the Institute's signature Shangri-La and Manama Dialogues, the leading Asia-Pacific and Middle East security summits convened by the IISS. The latter drew record numbers of delegates, underscoring the IISS's pedigree in creating and convening forums that fulfil a significant strategic need, help governments in their defence diplomacy and enable companies to conduct their geo-political due diligence as they navigate an ever-more complex world.

'The IISS plays an invaluable role in bringing together experts from many different countries for research and dialogue on issues which are of vital importance for international peace and security.' Kofi Annan, former UN Secretary General

In 2015–2016, the IISS's extensive research programme and array of publications, including the flagship The Military Balance and two new international seminal publications, on armed conflict and cyber security, provided the facts and analytical tools for experts and decision-makers to address existing and new security challenges. These included developing transnational security threats, the changing character of conflict and the proliferation of defence technology.

The Institute's Strategic Survey: the Annual Review of World Affairs continued to draw plaudits as the leading annual assessment of global affairs. The 2015 edition provided a succinct assessment of the changing global order, in which the West's rules-based order is being increasingly challenged. Survival maintained the periodical's position at the forefront of strategic debate, including path-breaking work on deterrence and cyber strategy. Strategic Comments online continued to provide revelatory guides on key security and strategic developments from the arrival of Islamic State (ISIS) in Libya to the internationalisation of China's renminbi.

'The IISS, with its world-class analysts drawn from around the world, is a great resource to help businesses with global interests conduct their geo political due diligence.' Kasper Rorsted, former Chief Executive Officer, Henkel AG & Company

This new review aims to highlight how the IISS identifies new issues and contributes to a balanced strategic debate and effective action through carefully sourced facts, objective analysis and global convening power. This full-spectrum set of tools enables its community of partners in governments, in industry and among experts and opinion-formers to assess risk and policy options to inform their decision-making.

Born out of the concerns of the Cold War, the IISS's credentials were founded on analysing and explaining the critical issues of transatlantic security, and promoting strategic stability. As the post Cold War world has unfolded, the IISS has adapted and evolved into an organisation with a truly global perspective.

With its international staff, footprint and body of expertise, the IISS remains true to its core values of independence, rigorous and accurate research, and original thought and insight.

'The IISS is lean and disciplined, canny and influential and, at crucial moments, critically effective.' The Ford Foundation

The Future Character of Conflict
Contested Future

Among the most telling and sustained contributions the IISS has made to strategic debate has been its unique fact-based, open-source analysis of global military capabilities and armed conflict.

In recent years, analysis in The Military Balance has shaped government and business perspectives on global defence spending. The 2016 edition reveals that spending in the Asia-Pacific region is now US$100bn higher than in Europe.

The latest edition of the book also highlights the trends of technology proliferation and the narrowing of the West's military technological advantage over the rest of the world. These findings are already influencing thinking on, and understanding of, a future military environment that will be ever more contested.

The IISS has also led thinking on hybrid warfare – the use of conventional and unconventional tactics including information warfare. In 2015, the Institute organised an important workshop on the subject for the German Ministry of Defence.

'Thanks to your workshop, the assembled community of renowned experts was able to engage in stimulating and lively debates, providing us with valuable insights and ideas for the preparation of our White Paper.' Dr Ursula von der Leyen, German Defence Minister
(Letter to IISS Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security Nigel Inkster, on the IISS Hybrid Warfare workshop for the German Ministry of Defence)

In just two editions, the Armed Conflict Survey has become a key reference work on more than 40 conflicts around the world, leveraging an online, regularly updated database under the IISS Armed Conflict Programme. The 2016 edition highlights how states have been reclaiming territory from non-state opposition. The inaugural 2015 publication showed that the lethality of conflicts had increased.

In light of the growing threat from the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott called for a new interventionist commitment when he delivered a Fullerton Lecture in Singapore in December 2015.

In 2015, the IISS published what is set to become a standard reference work on the evolution of the cyber domain and explored whether and how to establish a deterrence regime in the cyber domain. And Survival carried a ground-breaking article on encryption policy as a crucial test for the approach of liberal democracies to cyber security. The Future Conflict and Cyber Security Programme, along with the Defence and Military Analysis Programme, are leading research on defence-technological innovation, artificial intelligence and autonomy.

Dr John Chipman
IISS Director-General and Chief Executive

Tony Abbott
Former Prime Minister of Australia

IISS: Developing data, analysis and understanding of increasingly complex environments

Europe
New Security Environment

Europe in 2015–2016 has been facing a dramatic set of challenges to its security and strategic assumptions. The IISS has an unmatched pedigree in the analysis of European security issues, now adapted for the new strategic environment.

The Institute's Survival journal published an article by Francois Heisbourg on the strategic implications of the Syrian refugee crisis and its bearing on European policy choices over the conflicts in the Middle East. Director of Future Conflict and Cyber Security Nigel Inkster provided internationally respected analysis of the evolved jihadist threat in Europe, as well as a significant contribution to the debate over the security implications of the UK–EU referendum.

Survival also led and shaped debate on the challenge of a resurgent Russia. And Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman produced a series of articles on the strategic significance of the Ukraine crisis.

In the 2015 edition of the flagship publication The Military Balance, the IISS Defence and Military Analysis Programme (DMAP) experts produced a highly authoritative assessment of Russia's armed forces. Strategic Survey 2015 included detailed analysis of Russia's military modernisation programme.

Through further briefings, DMAP and other IISS experts, including from the Institute's Russia and Eurasia Programme and US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs Programme, assisted governments and corporate partners and organisations in understanding and assessing this new security environment, including some of the material and strategic limitations of the new threat. And in workshops, DMAP made important contributions to shaping the decision-making of NATO and the UK Ministry of Defence as the latter carried out a major strategic review.

'In its early years, the IISS played a huge role developing strategies of arms control and nuclear-weapons policy. Today, they are applying that same spirit of intellectual enterprise and strategic insight to the analysis of the cyber domain. Government and companies around the world benefit hugely from the independent thinking the IISS offers.' Toomas Hendrik Ilves, President of the Republic of Estonia

The annual Alistair Buchan Lecture is a long-established and landmark IISS forum for airing the issues of European security, and potential solutions to them. For the 2015 Buchan Lecture, the President of Estonia, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, spoke of Europe being at a crossroads as it faced multiple new and difficult challenges.

Planned IISS project work will further assist partners in calibrating Russian military modernisation plans, and the requirements for future European defence and security capabilities. The IISS will again be at the heart of working to improve the stability of the European security framework.

Toomas Hendrik Ilves
President of the Republic of Estonia

 

IISS: A legacy of understanding and authority adapted for a new era

Geo-economics and Strategy
New Connections

In 2015–2016, the IISS made significant strides in establishing economic issues in the mainstream of strategic and security thought.

In particular, the Institute again demonstrated its ability to identify and address a key gap in the emerging geostrategic space leading it to convene the Cartagena Dialogue in Colombia. The Dialogue provided a new forum for South America to understand and foster a growing array of new global economic linkages promoting growth and development with a significant security and stability link. It brought together the Pacific Alliance states of Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru, neighbouring states in Latin America and countries from the Asia-Pacific region.

'I am sure that the results of the Cartagena Dialogue will allow us to make definite progress in pursuit of the well-being for our people through the impetus of business relationships, promoting investment, and strengthening cooperation in their different fields.' Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez, President of Panama

Under the auspices of the Institute's Economic and Energy Security Programme, the IISS is undertaking an authoritative research study on the future construct of maritime and energy security in the Indo-Pacific region. The latest Strategic Survey includes a chapter on the strategic impact of the oil price slump. The Adelphi book Power Shifts and New Blocs in the Global Trading System built on IISS research meetings to address the impact of new trading powers and blocs such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership on international relations and global economic governance.

In November 2015, the IISS Geo-economics and Strategy Programme launched the inaugural Bahrain Bay Forum. This aims to be the premier gathering in the Middle East for economic policymakers from major industrial and resource-based economies. The Institute also conducted a workshop on the developing geo-economic relationship between the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council and China and India, as well as exploring other developing connections with the Middle East and Asia. This is set to be a growing focus for the Institute, bringing together its resources to pursue work on and strengthen understanding in this area.

'The IISS has played a vital role in strengthening links across the Pacific.' María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Colombia

Juan Manuel Santos
President of Colombia

Katia Bouazza
Head, Latin America and Capital Financing, HSBC Bank USA

IISS: New research and new forums to promote trade, prosperity and secure development

Emerging Security Agenda
New Threats, New Approaches

The Institute is pushing the boundaries of understanding and strategic action on the emerging security agenda. In 2015–2016, its Security and Development Programme undertook important research into the growing security challenges posed by the world's mega-cities. Security concerns ranging from terrorism to organised crime are now key preoccupations of urban authorities, security providers and development organisations.

The IISS is also monitoring the evolving issues of violence and instability in Africa, including through the Armed Conflict Survey. In 2016, for example, the latest edition of the survey raised new questions about calibrating the threat from foreign fighters and the shifting role of female combatants. The Institute's Research Fellow for Security and Development, Virginia Comolli, is an acknowledged expert on the enduring challenge of Boko Haram.

The Institute is also shaping policy development to shift the paradigm on the issue of drugs and conflict prevention in Afghanistan. The IISS–Middle East office held a panel discussion attended by subject experts and corporate leaders on the geo-economics and geopolitics of transnational organised crime, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa and East Africa.

The IISS is also engaged on the issue of global governance and security. During the 2015 Oppenheimer Lecture, the Public Protector of South Africa, Advocate Thuli Madonsela, described the strong links between justice and peace, but said the International Criminal Court was facing a crisis of legitimacy. The Institute also explored the implications for security and defence assistance of corruption in fragile states.

'It is splendid that a global think tank with the reputation and influence of the IISS places such importance on engaging leading Africans in the mainstream of strategic discussion, and that in those discussions, the rule of law and good governance is put front and centre of the debate.' Advocate Thuli Madonsela, Public Protector of South Africa

In its work on climate change and security, the Institute hosted a workshop on the benefits and limitations of Arctic development. Across its programmes, the Institute will further marshal its resources to focus on new issues of growing strategic and security concern.

Advocate Thuli Madonsela
Public Protector of South Africa

 

IISS: Identifying and exploring new paradigms for security

Asia-Pacific
Troubled Waters

In 2015–2016, the Asia-Pacific region was immersed in tension and unease over the South China Sea and North Korea's nuclear and missile activity. Once again, the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore provided a unique regional forum for debate and diplomacy.

At the 2015 Dialogue, the United States announced a major new maritime security initiative while China set out its position on its South China Sea land reclamation activities. The forum also provided a critical barometer for governments, opinion-leaders and industry partners to assess both the commitments of key players and the stakes for all in the region and beyond.

'Over its history, IISS has hosted invaluable conversations like the Shangri-La Dialogue and produced important scholarship, and through all of that you have made our world more secure.' US Secretary of Defense, Dr Ashton Carter, 2015

The IISS's Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment, published to coincide with each Dialogue, provides the most comprehensive collection of data and analysis of the region's multifaceted dynamics and tensions, shaping debate and understanding. These strategic dossiers are compiled with the expertise, in particular, of the Institute's Asia-Pacific Programme, the Defence and Military Analysis Programme and the Future Conflict and Cyber Security Programme.

In the context of Beijing's rising global profile, the Institute published a major new Adelphi study of China's evolving foreign policy interests, China's Strong Arm. This publication describes how China's growing global economic activity is driving its security agenda to protect its increasing number of foreign assets and citizens abroad.

In influential commentaries and briefings to corporate partners, IISS–Asia Executive Director Dr Tim Huxley challenged the United States and its partners to be more robust in the face of Beijing's South China Sea activities.

Executive Director IISS–Americas and Director of the Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme, Mark Fitzpatrick, and Consulting Senior Fellow for Missile Defence, Michael Elleman, provided the most authoritative insights into North Korea's recent nuclear and missile activities. Fitzpatrick's important new Adelphi book explored new nuclear non-proliferation risks in Asia. Their work helped to inform and shape international responses.

The Fullerton Lecture series continued to provide a regular public platform for major figures in the Asia-Pacific region to explore key themes and challenges. The Fullerton Forum 2016 led the debate on growing regional concern about the impact of radical violence, with the Institute's experts providing early analysis for the Asia-Pacific region on the global challenge of Islamic State radicalism.

'There is a critical demand in our world and our societies to create more opportunities for dialogue in order to prevent conflict... The Shangri-La Dialogue is helping make this happen because everyone in the community is here.' Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defence, France

In one of the most challenging and significant spheres of future global engagement, the IISS underlined its ability to help forge a para-diplomatic path for key players, bringing together officials and scholars in the UK-China Cyber Security Dialogue.

Lee Hsien Loong
Prime Minister of Singapore

Dr Ashton Carter
US Secretary of Defense

Admiral Sun Jingo
Deputy Chief, General Staff Department, People's Liberation Army, China

Dr Ursula von der Leyen
Federal Minister of Defence, Germany

IISS: A key regional strategic actor, helping to develop sound, sustainable policies

Middle East and South Asia
Strategic Upheaval

The Middle East remains a region in intense and dangerous flux. In 2015–2016, the IISS's unique strengths in evidence-based research and analysis and para-diplomatic engagement again combined to help shape policy responses within the region and beyond.

The Adelphi study Middle Eastern Security, the US Pivot, and the Rise of ISIS provided early analysis of the new challenges facing regional security and stability, framing the proceedings of the IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain. Like the Shangri-La Dialogue, the Manama Dialogue has established itself as an indispensable regional security and diplomatic forum.

The 2015 Manama Dialogue came at a critical moment in terms of regional developments. The keynote address was delivered by President of the Arab Republic of Egypt, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi. The Dialogue, in the immediate aftermath of the Geneva talks on Syria, gave the participants the first opportunity to reveal the key outcomes of the talks and debate the way forward.

'You, who are part of the Manama Dialogue, understand the deep security issues at stake. If we are going to meet the urgent demands of this century... our region must have a platform of peace and security. Your leadership can help build the regional and global architecture to achieve these goals.'
HM King Abdullah II, Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan

The IISS–Middle East office has become a hub for developing strong regional partnerships to promote understanding and stability, with analysis from the Middle East and the Gulf Programme. A new Adelphi study, Egypt after the Spring: Revolt and Reaction, examined Egypt's politics, economy and society following the upheaval of the January 2011 uprising. To add to the breadth and depth of its regional expertise, in 2015 the IISS–Middle East office appointed a senior fellow for political Islamism, Dr Nelly Lahoud.

IISS experts Emile Hokayem and Professor Toby Dodge and IISS–Middle East Executive Director Sir John Jenkins provided influential critiques of the counter ISIS strategy, and analysis of the strategic competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran. In Strategic Comments, the Institute led the way in identifying the growing Islamic State presence in Libya, now a core international concern.

The Institute's ground-breaking data-based analysis of the conflict in Syria and against ISIS, including the Russian intervention, as well as the unfolding crisis in Yemen, added to the shaping of strategic discourse during 2015–2016.

The IISS Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy (NPNP) Programme delivered a highly detailed assessment of the Iran nuclear deal while an authoritative public dossier on Gulf missile defence developments is under way.

The IISS plays a crucial role in fostering strategic stability in South Asia. The IISS South Asia Programme's unrivalled regional network has enabled it uniquely to bring together top-serving intelligence officials from India and Pakistan, as well as from Afghanistan, for 'track 1.5' meetings to discuss shared security concerns.

The Institute's standing has given it privileged access to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs and Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division. In the last year, the IISS twice hosted Pakistan's army chief, General Raheel Sharif, for important discussions on counter-terrorism and regional security.

The South Asia Programme's activities are a further example of how the IISS's multi-faceted work and breadth of expertise are brought together to address a set of security issues of global significance.

'There can be no doubt that these events play a vital role in facilitating multilateral engagement that drives forward security and economic policy solutions.' Zayed Al Zayani, Bahrain Minister of Industry, Commerce and Tourism, on the IISS Manama Dialogue and Bahrain Bay Forum

Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi
President of the Arab Republic of Egypt

Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain

Antony Blinken
US Deputy Secretary of State

 

IISS: Creating vital relationships to foster understanding and stability

Looking Ahead, Staying Ahead

Authoritative and insightful research of strategic value and relevance for governments, business and the expert and opinion-forming community lies at the core of the IISS's mission. Looking to the future, the Institute has an ambitious research programme and agenda of activity that will increase its ability to advance understanding of strategic and security issues and add value for its global community of partners.

'The IISS is doing work of paramount importance in a turbulent world.' Eric X Li, Managing Director, Chengwei Capital

The Military Balance Online

Launch of an online version of The Military Balance will provide a step-change in the IISS's data and analysis capabilities. Driven by a powerful interactive database, this project will enable the Institute to hold even more data on national military capabilities, and to generate more analysis, more often. It will dramatically improve the ability to interrogate the data to inform and guide critical decision-making.

Regional Security

A priority focus for new IISS research will be China, with the 'China's Strategic Arrival' initiative that will assess China's geo-economic agenda and its military capabilities, measure its cyber power and test case its strategic ambitions. Future IISS research under the Asia-Pacific Security Programme will also cover analysis of the fragilities of Southeast Asia as well as a comprehensive assessment of Asian military developments.

In other fields, the Middle East and the Gulf Programme will be demystifying Iran's power structure dynamics in a crucial body of research and analysis to shape understanding and debate about how to sustain regional strategic stability in the aftermath of the Iran nuclear deal. The Institute is also launching an initiative to identify the varieties of political Islam and their regional significance.

IISS expertise under the South Asia Programme will advance the already well-regarded and increasingly acknowledged dialogue-building across regional divides through work on promoting common threat analysis and engagement.

With the dramatically changed dimensions of European security, the Institute also plans further expansion of one of the building blocks of its expertise. The European Security Programme promises to address an array of new security challenges. The objective is to produce a major new defence technical dossier on future European capabilities and threats and a comprehensive new study of Russian military modernisation. The US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs Programme will research 'the new cold wars' of Europe, the Middle East and East Asia, their characteristics, impact and how they can be mitigated and brought to an end.

'The IISS has a nose for what business wants: not only timely and digestible analysis on which we rely to make good decisions but, just as important, an insight into deeper strategic trends which enable better long-term planning and positioning.' Sir Sherard Cowper Coles, former British diplomat

Thematic Programmes

The IISS Future Conflict and Cyber Security Programme will stake out the framework of understanding of how developments in the information space, the cyber domain and robotics, artificial intelligence and autonomy are reshaping the character of conflict. A particular focus will be comprehending how the activities of China and others are changing the rules of engagement in cyberspace.

Under its renowned Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme, IISS work on monitoring the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal, an updated dossier on Middle East nuclear-energy aspirations, further evaluation of the North Korea nuclear issue, and additional analysis on nuclear exports as a proliferation and nuclear security issue, will top the agenda.

As the growing Security and Development Programme seeks to build on its work on the security implications of large-scale urbanisation in the developing world, it will also focus, in association with the Armed Conflict Programme, on mapping conflict, risk and insecurity in Africa.

The IISS places international economic considerations at the forefront of its work as its corporate network continues to expand globally. Through its Geo-economics and Strategy Programme, the Institute develops international engagement to create a seamless connection between geo-economics, strategy and security analysis.

www.iiss.org/en/research

Shaping the Security Debate

IISS activities have led and shaped strategic thought and action.

IISS publications are recognised as key reference works and the Institute's assessments of regional trends are influencers of regional security dialogue. Analysis of the strategic shifts in global defence outlays, Russian military resources and capability developments in the Asia-Pacific region in The Military Balance is increasingly cited by governments, the corporate sector and the expert and opinion-forming community, especially the media. In two years, the Armed Conflict Survey has established itself as the best reference source on active conflicts around the world, which it authoritatively estimates led to 167,000 fatalities in 2015. It has already become an indispensable tool for aid agencies, governments, financial institutions and industry for analysing the consequences of armed conflict globally. Strategic dossiers such as the annual Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment have helped provide unmatched depth and breadth of analysis of the geopolitical currents of the region.

The IISS's identification of new strategic issues has helped governments and businesses to focus on what matters. In an age of living tactically, the IISS's mission is more important than ever. Governments, businesses and the analytical community need to be enabled to think and act strategically. This review demonstrates the continued value and relevance of the IISS as both actor in and driver of strategic thinking, strategic debate and action on a global scale.

'Shell values the IISS for the insights it gives us on global geopolitics and security. The Institute helps give context and depth to our understanding of the world around us, and helps us shape better, more informed, business decisions.'
Dr Cho Khong, Shell International